000
AXNT20 KNHC 190457
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sun May 19 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0455 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea
near 10N14W and continues southwestward to 07N19W. The ITCZ 
extends from 07N19W to 05N35W and 04N51W. Isolated to scattered 
moderate convection is observed from 02N to 08N and east of 31W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak stationary front extends from the Florida panhandle near
30N85W to 24N94W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection
is noted north of 26N and east of 88W. A recent scatterometer
satellite pass indicate that strong winds are associated with the
strongest convection. Meanwhile, strong thunderstorms over the 
eastern Yucatan peninsula are spilling into the eastern Bay of 
Campeche. Fresh to locally strong easterly winds and seas of 5-8 
ft are found north of Yucatan, especially south of 24N and between
85W and 89W. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas
are prevalent in the remainder of the basin. Areas of haze and 
smoke due to agricultural fires in Mexico continue across most of 
the western Gulf and Bay of Campeche. 

For the forecast, the aforementioned front will shift eastward 
tonight before stalling again on Sun from Tampa Bay to the central
Gulf, and weaken gradually through Mon. Elsewhere, moderate to 
fresh return flow will dominate the basin through early Sun, 
pulsing to locally strong near the Yucatan Peninsula and the Bay 
of Campeche. Winds will slightly weaken Sun into early next week 
as the pressure gradient relaxes. Meanwhile, areas of haze and 
smoke due to agricultural fires in Mexico continue across most of 
the western Gulf and Bay of Campeche. Moderate to locally fresh SE
return flow will develop again across the W Gulf Tue through Thu 
night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The subtropical ridge over the north Atlantic continues to extend
into the Caribbean Sea, maintaining generally dry conditions. The
pressure gradient between the aforementioned ridge and lower 
pressures in the deep tropics support fresh to locally near gale-
force easterly trade winds in the south-central Caribbean and 
Gulf of Honduras. This was confirmed by a recent scatterometer
satellite pass. These winds are sustaining seas of 6-9 ft, with 
the highest seas occurring off NW Colombia and the Bay Islands. 
Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and seas of 4-7 ft are 
present in the north-central and eastern Caribbean. Elsewhere, 
moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. 
Smoke due to agricultural fires in Central America continues 
across areas of the northwestern Caribbean and the Gulf of 
Honduras. 

For the forecast, a weak and narrow Atlantic ridge extends 
westward along 24N into the central Bahamas. The associated 
pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure over SE 
Mexico is supporting fresh to strong E to SE winds across the Gulf
of Honduras, and fresh to locally strong E winds in the south- 
central Caribbean. Strong winds in the Gulf of Honduras will 
persist through Sun morning, reaching near gale-force tonight. 
Fresh to strong winds will pulse at night in the Gulf of Venezuela
and offshore Colombia through Mon night. High pressure from the 
eastern Atlantic will build westward Wed and early Wed night 
leading to increasing trade winds over most of the central and 
eastern Caribbean as a weak trough materializes over the western 
Atlantic. A mid to upper-level trough may bring increasing 
tropical moisture to the central and eastern Caribbean region 
around mid-week. Smoke due to agricultural fires in Central 
America continues across areas of the northwestern Caribbean, and 
over the Gulf of Honduras. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough over the SE United States is producing 
scattered showers across the waters north of the NW Bahamas.
Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds and seas of 2-4 ft are 
occurring north of 28N and west of 77W. Farther east, a surface 
trough extends from 31N58W to 26N66W and to 27N72W. Scattered 
showers and isolated thunderstorms is observed north of 23N and 
between 45W and 57W. The rest of the tropical Atlantic is 
dominated by a broad subtropical ridge over the north Atlantic. 
Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and seas of 5-7 ft are 
evident south of 20N. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and 
slight to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast W of 55W, a weak frontal trough extends from 31N58W
southwestward to 26N66W then to 27N72W. The trough will shift 
eastward through late Sun as it weakens further. Moderate to 
locally fresh winds and moderate seas are expected across most of
the area through Sun night as weak high pressure extends E to W 
to the south of the trough, roughly along 24N-25N. A new front 
will sink southward into the waters offshore of Georgia and NE 
Florida early Mon, and move southeastward and weaken through late
Tue. A trough will extend from near 30N70W to the northern 
Bahamas early on Wed and slowly shift eastward through Thu night,
as possible weak low pressure forms along it.

$$
Delgado